1. Is this like war?
No game is like war. But there may be no more gruelling, attritional contest than St Kilda v Sydney. Both Ross Lyon and John Longmire have operated under Paul Roos's man-on-man mantra, but have adapted to the modern game with its presses and zone-offs in the back half. After a period where they played different styles (St Kilda with a press, Sydney still man-on-man) they have come back together again in 2011. It is primarily a defensive bent. The idea is: keep the opposition to 10 goals and we should win. In both cases, the teams are dour when they don't play at their best. Sometimes it's a struggle to reach that 10-goal tally. The Saints are 11th (avgeraging 13 goals) and Sydney 12th (avgeraging 12 goals) in scoring this season.
2. Who quells Adam Goodes?
Goodes has been either best-on-ground, or close, in four of the past six games. And that does not include the round-22 clash where he was quietish before winning the match with his superb last quarter. The Swans don't tend to win if he does not play well. Three weeks ago Lyon employed Sam Fisher as his marker all over the ground, then early in the last quarter, after Fisher had done a reasonable job, Lyon released the tag to create some offence and Goodes took over. I envisage St Kilda running with Fisher again, for the job is that important. The other alternative is to send the ever-reliable defender Sean Dempster with him.
3. Is the Etihad Stadium factor relevant?
Yes. The Saints are 7-3 at the Docklands this year. They have not lost a Saturday night game there since 2003. Having said that, Sydney don't mind the stadium and would far prefer it to the MCG, where they have been poor since their glory years of 2005-06.
4. Whose press is better?
So much of modern footy is about working through forward presses, and hence the emphasis on accurate kicking. Sydney has started playing a press this year, but it is not as good as St Kilda's as a general rule. This is where the Saints might get an advantage, if they have the energy and the concentration to make it work. Sydney has a tendency to butcher possession in the back half, especially under pressure. The Swans have the worst disposal efficiency in the AFL.
5. Can the big boys stand up for St Kilda?
If it's tight the Saints need their leaders to take control. That means Nick Riewoldt, who was beaten by Ted Richards when the teams played last. Given that Riewoldt is struggling with knee soreness and poor form, it may be Brendon Goddard who holds the key for St Kilda. If Goddard plays well and Fisher can curtail Goodes, the Saints will be a long way towards graduating.